“A bullet, a bomb, or a missile cannot, will not, destroy us. This will not end. We will sooner or later revenge ourselves upon you for the deeds you have done to us.”
Letter from the Chechen militia to the people of Russia
Open Wound, pg. 9
Chechen Conflict Effects
Russian Official Figures
On September 28, 2006, Anatoly Kulikov, deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma committee on security said:
“In the 12 years of our Russian antiterrorist war in the Chechen Republic, aggregate losses among the federal forces, illegal armed groups and civilians are estimated at about 45,000 people”
Chechen Official Estimates
On, June 26, 2005, Dukvakha Abdurakmanov a deputy prime minister in the Kremlin-controlled Chechen administration, said about 300,000 people have been killed during two wars in Chechnya over the past decade; he also said that more than 200,000 people have gone missing
Unofficial Estimates
The Society for Russian-Chechen Friendship set the conservative estimate of death toll in this time period at about 150,000–200,000 civilians, 20,000–40,000 Russian soldiers, and possibly the same amount of Chechen rebels.
Military Situation Today
Level of Conflict is at the Guerilla/Civil War level
No large-scale fighting, small skirmishes and insurgent activity by Chechen rebels with retaliatory strikes by Russian forces.
Russian forces are subdued
Use of Chechen defectors and Russian-friendly Chechen groups to provide security
Russian operations are controlled by the FSB (aka the KGB)
Russia has put to trial soldiers accused of violations
The European Court of Human Rights is hearing cases brought against the Russian government by Chechens
Radicalization of the Conflict
The Death of Aslan Maskhadov in 2005 left a leadership void
Maskhadov was the leader of the Chechen forces and President of the Chechen de-facto Republic after the 1996 Cease-Fire
He was killed by Russian Special Operations Forces acting under the FSB in March 2005.
He has been replaced by more religiously motivated leaders
The goal of the movement according to the same the new rebel spokesman Movladi Udugov was no longer Western-style democracy and independence, but an Islamist "North Caucasian Emirate.”
The history and violence of the conflict, where up to 1/10th of the Chechen population has perished leaves a huge desire for revenge.
Chechen Quote
The minimum goal – not to surrender – has been met. Today, we have a different task on our hands – total war, war everywhere our enemy can be reached. (...) And this means mounting attacks at any place, not just in the Caucasus but in all Russia.
